Saturday, April 30, 2011

Round 2 Picks

Okay, so I didn't post these in time, because I didn't realize the Preds/Canucks series would start so soon, but I did actually write this before the Lightning stole one from the Caps on Friday.
I don't think it was terribly difficult, but all of my first round picks were correct (only the amount of games might have been different for a couple series). The second round will be a little bit tougher to call as the matchups become more even.
Since the series has already begun, I'll start with the Canucks/Preds. After the Canucks finally overcame their perennial foe--the Blackhawks--the Canucks' postseason is starting to look like a good story if they are able to take it all the way. As far as I can tell, Nashville will just be another stop along the way.

The Canucks showed themselves to be an all-around dominant team at times. They proved they can be an offensive threat, as well as a shutdown defense. Luongo also posted a shutout and might be the sole reason the Canucks won games 1 and 7. However, all facets of their game showed significant breakdowns in the series.

Games 4 and 5 were showcases of mental weakness as the Blackhawks had Lu listening to "So You Had a Bad Day" on repeat as he cried himself to sleep. The Sedins also showed that they could be entirely shut down by the addition of one defensive forward to the roster. If I were a Canucks fan, I would be worried that the Predators defensive style might also render the Sedins impotent.

The Predators showed heart and grit in their series with the Ducks, finally advancing to the the second round of the playoffs for the first time in team history. Sadly, I think the road ends here for them. The Ducks are a good team, no doubt, but they are nothing compared to the Canucks when they're at their best. When the Canucks are on top of their game, the only team I could see stopping them is the Red Wings. Now that the Canucks have exorcised their demons against the Blackhawks, I don't think we'll see any significant collapses by the Canucks. Keep in mind, all of the Canucks' postseason collapses were against the Hawks; every other playoff series they've had in the past three years, they've looked excellent. This series, we'll see more of the Canucks team that we saw during the regular season.

Canucks in 6.

Sharks/Red Wings

Once again, the Sharks are in the postseason after a great regular season, but once again, they will fall short of the ultimate prize. Unfortunately for the Sharks, they are already facing the seed directly below them. Even more unfortunate? They're facing a team that probably has more playoff experience in the last ten years than any other team in the league. Need we also mention that they might be a tad upset that the Sharks eliminated them last year?

The Sharks showed heart in Game 3 in Round 1 against the Kings by coming back from what I was sure was another San Jose postseason collapse. However, the series was not all positive. Former Blackhawks playoff goalie hero, Antti Niemi, looked like he'd been studying goaltending in Philadelphia, posting an embarrassing 3.99 GAA and a pathetic .863 save percentage. Things won't get any easier versus the red-hot Pavel Datsyuk and company.

The Red Wings took the Coyotes to Pound Town and they will now lay hands on the Sharks. The Wings are a playoff-tested bunch of savvy players who are simply programmed to dominate. The Sharks are no more than a brief stopover in the Red Wings' path to another Conference Finals.

Wings in 5.

Capitals/Lightning

Washington handled the Rangers as most would expect they should, which is a major improvement since their first round loss to the 8th seed Canadiens last year. The deadly offense combined with the new-found stingy defense means that Michal Neuvirth has the potential to become the next Antti Niemi (of last year, not this year). He posted an impressive 1.36 GAA against the Rangers in Round 1. If he can keep that up, the Capitals shouldn't have too much trouble scoring two goals in a game.

Hands down, the best acquisition the Lightning made this season was the addition of veteran goalie Dwayne Roloson. This was well-illustrated in their first round series against the Penguins. Posting a .949 save percentage and a 1.77 GAA, Rollie gave the Lightning a chance to win, most importantly in Game 7. The Lightning combine solid backstopping with Hart finalist Martin St. Louis and captain Vincent Lecavalier. However, I don't think there is enough star-power on this team to elevate the Lightning past the Caps.

Capitals in 6.

Bruins/Flyers

This might be the most interesting matchup of the second round. These two teams met last season at the semifinals; a series which the Bruins took a 3-0 series lead before dropping four straight, including a Game 7 which they led 3-0 at one point. It easily qualifies as the most colossal collapse in recent memory.

This time, the Flyers come in as the higher seed and the Bruins' Tim Thomas is in the midst of a Vezina-nominated season. By far, this is the toughest series to predict. The Flyers boast an exvellent offense which they showcased against one of the NHL's top netminders, Ryan Miller. However, the roulette-style goalie selection process that was happening in Peter Laviolette's head every night gives Flyers fans something to worry about. No goalie could build any consistency, nor seemingly stop a puck. Luckily, the Flyers offense bailed them out in a seven-game series that would have been monumentally embarrassing for the Flyers to lose.

The Bruins survived a goalie duel with a gritty Canadiens team and a formiddable goalie in Price. One has to respect the Bruins' rebound after losing the first two games of the series, but do they have the fortitude to do to the Flyers what the Flyers did to them last year?

This series is going to boil down to two things. Can the Flyers find an answer in net? Can the Bruins' offense match the Flyers'? My guess is that Laviolette goes with Boucher for the rest of the playoffs and he will get into a rhythym. There are very few teams who can match the Flyers' offense and the Bruins are not one of them. The Flyers' offense was great against the Sabres, and if they get Jeff Carter back, it will only get better. Thomas will steal at least two games and Boucher is due for at least one terrible game. However, the Flyers will take this series, and it will take them 7 games to do it.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Spencer's Playoff Predictions--Western Conference



(1) Canucks/(8) Blackhawks
The Vancouver Canucks are an easy favorite to win it all. They led the league from wire-to-wire this season with few--if any--slumps. After making two consecutive second-round exits (at the hands of the Blackhawks, no less), the Canucks added much-needed strength to their blueline (Dan Hamhuis, Keith Ballard). Adding gritty veterans Manny Malhotra, Jeff Tambellini, and Raffi Torres were also to their benefit. These players are all surrounding the talent that got them to the playoffs the last two years (the Sedins, Ryan Kesler, Mikael Samuelsson, Kevin Bieksa, Roberto Luongo). It's not surprising that the Nucks finished the season as Presidents Trophy-winners and had the greatest goal differential in the league (+77). The only areas of concern for Vancouver are the loss of Malhotra, the anchor to the Canucks' third line. Additionally, the Canucks have had trouble keeping their defense healthy. Lastly, Roberto Luongo has appeared to suffer collapses in the mental part of his game the last two years against the Hawks. However, this seemed to likely be because of Dustin Byfuglien's presence in front of the net. Without Big Buff in the way, will this be the year that the Canucks are able to move past the Blackhawks?

The defending Stanley Cup Champs have had a maddeningly inconsistent year capped-off by barely clinching a playoff spot, relying on the Wild to beat the Stars in the last game of the season. After parting with so many "role players" in the offseason, the Hawks had a difficult time getting their new faces to fill these roles. Thankfully, the Blackhawks were able to retain their core (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp). However, the Hawks were unable to avoid the "injury bug" as they had last season. All of the above-mentioned players missed at least a few games this year due to injury. This lack of consistency may end up costing the Hawks who are facing an opponent who clearly has their act together. The only real hope for this Chicago team is if they wer able to get in Vancouver's head--especially Luongo's--and remind them of their failures.

Canucks in 7.

(2) Sharks/(7) Kings
This has the potential to be the most lop-sided series in the first round. The Kings made the playoffs on the backs of Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams, and Jonathan Quick. Unfortunately for the Kings, Kopitar and Williams are done for the season. And if Jonathan Quick's performance in the final week of the season is any indication of what he'll do in the playoffs, the Kings are in bad shape.

The Sharks have been a sexy pick the last several years. With plenty of big names and the scoring to back it up, the Sharks were a difficult team to ignore. After making yet another early exit from last year's playoffs ( a 4-0 series sweep by the Blackhawks in the Western Conference Finals), the Sharks parted ways with netminder Evgeni Nabakov, who had always been a solid option in the regular season, but fell apart in the playoffs. Interestingly, the Sharks signed Antti Niemi, the goalie who thwarted their Cup hopes last season and ended up hoisting the Cup himself. Pair this playoff-tested goalie with an offense who has learned to be better two-way players and you have a playoff contender.

Sharks in 5.

(3) Red Wings/(6) Coyotes
The Coyotes are an interesting team. Shane Doan's 20 goals leads the team. Most people would take this as a sign of an anemic offense. However, ten other players on the roster have at least ten goals. this sort of player parity makes for a team who can score with any line. However, Phoenix's +5 goal differential this season may not be good enough to take down the perennial playoff contenders.

The history of the Red Wings is well-documented. One would need to go back two decades to find a season that the Wings didn't make the playoffs. The team is only one year separated from its last Stanley Cup Finals appearance and only two years removed from their last Stanley Cup Championship. The familiar cast is back (Zetterberg, Franzen, Holmstrom, Datsyuk, Lidstrom) and there is no reason to doubt them this year.

Red Wings in 6.

(4) Ducks/(5) Predators
The Ducks looked doomed when Jonas Hiller went out with a case of vertigo and Curtis McElhinney took over the starting role. However, the subsequent dumping of McElhinney and additions of Dan Ellis and Ray Emeryseem to give Ducks fans a reason to believe. The Ducks' offense should be a source of hope as well. Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan, and Teemu Selanne lead the team in goals with 50, 34, and 31 respectively. I also can't question their meddle as the Ducks came from behind to win several important games down the stretch. Additionally, the Ducks have won 10 of their last 13 games. The last thing a team wants to face in the playoffs is a hot team, which is exactly what the Ducks have become.

The Predators might have been the last team in the West that anyone wanted to face in the first round of last year's playoffs. Although the Predators were only a 7th seed last year, their trap defense wasn't something any fast-paced team looked forward to. The Predators return to the playoffs this year two seeds higher and with a similar lineup. One significant departure to note is the loss of Dan Hamhuis to Vancouver. This may hurt the Preds chances agaisntthe goal-happy Ducks. However, the Ducks +4 goal differential might signify that the Ducks don't have a "stud" defense. Another point to consider is that the Ducks' goaltenders haven't seen playoff action for a few years. Ellis was a back-up last year and Emery spent a considerable amount of time on the DL. Even if Hiller comes back, I have doubts about his ability to snap into playoff form.

Predators in 7.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Spencer's First Round Playoff Picks--Eastern Conference


Now that the playoff pairings are set, and before the actual games begin, there's only one thing to do. Predict. Here are my best guesses at who will move on to the second round.
(1) Capitals/(8)Rangers
The Capitals have found fairly early exits in their last few playoff experiences. The Penguins pushed past the Caps in 08-09 in route to a Stanley Cup Championship. Last year, the Caps were upset as the #1 seed in the East in the first round by the #8 seed Canadiens. With all their scoring, the Caps had little to speak of in the defense and goaltending departments. However, the Caps learned their lesson and traded for Jason Arnott and Dennis Wideman. Their focus on improving their defense has not gone unnoticed as they've been able to shut down more teams rather than simply out-score them this year. In my opinion, this puts the Capitals past the Rangers in the first round.

The Rangers will not be a total pushover. A team so full of grit is hard to ignore come playoff time. However, the loss of Ryan Callahan will be about as devastating a loss to the Rangers as a guard dog losing its teeth. Callahan is the heart and energy of this team and let's not kid ourselves and pretend that Marian Gaborik is a player with any real heart.

Capitals in 6.

(2) Flyers/(7) Sabres
What can I say? The Flyers made the Finals last year as a #7 seed. Grit? Check. Talent? Check. Experience? Check. The Flyers have all the pieces to be taking home some hardware this season. The only area that some people might possibly be worried is in the goaltending. However, Antti Niemi proved last year that goalies need not have NHL playoff experience to win it all and Sergei Bobrovsky has shown himself to be as good a rookie talent as Niemi. What's stopping the Flyers?

The Sabres are possibly the least impressive team in the playoffs, in my opinion. Although Drew Stafford had 4 hat tricks this season, their top scorers are rather forgettable players. The most impressive player on the team is last year's Vezina Trophy-winner, Ryan Miller. However, Miller is not nearly as impressive as he was last year, sporting only a 2. 59 GAA. The Sabres shouldn't be too tough a task for the Flyers.

Flyers in 5.

(3) Bruins/(6) Canadiens
If the two teams are able to make it through the series without the Montreal Police somehow getting involved, I'll be impressed. As anyone who watches hockey knows, the regular season meetings between these two teams were less than sportsmanlike. However, this series will be a TV goldmine. Two teams who don't like each other with a lot of tools to do something about it.

The Bruins are a sexy pick this year as Tim Thomas has revived his Vezina-caliber play (he credits it to his new mask pattern) and the rest of the team has certainly played well enough to earn their #3 seed in the East, despite the lack of Marc Savard. The Bruins have also posted the East's best goal differential. The Bruins are a true contender this year and are likely to want to avenge their 2nd round collapse last season (In case you missed it, the Bruins were up on the Flyers 3-0 in the series before losing 3 consecutive games, then lost Game 7 after going up 3-0 in that game).

The Habs are as gritty a team as any in the playoffs. Their solid defensive play is backed by an equally stingy goaltender. Carey Price has had a nearly as impressive comeback as Thomas. After a great rookie season, Price lost the starting job to playoff hero Jaroslav Halak. With two starting goalies on their hands, the Canadiens decided to part with Halak and give Price another shot. It proved to be a good decision. However, I don't think Price will be able to do much about the Canadiens scoring. As good as the defense is for Montreal, I think they give up too much in the offensive department.

Boston in 7.

(4)Penguins/(5) Lightning
Since the loss of the loss of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins seemed a long-shot to make the playoffs. However, the Pens tied their division leader in points, and only missed the division lead themselves by a tiebreaker. Players like Chris Kunitz and Tyler Kennedy have stepped up to attempt to fill some of the void. No doubt, the Penguins would not be anywhere near this mark had they lacked Crosby and Malkin all season long, but you have to admire the fact that they only dropped 3 standings spots since losing them.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are making their first playoff appearance since 2006-07. After a few years old slumber, the Lightning have finally put together a team to watch. Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Steven Stamkos are a good place to start. The trio have combined for 101 goals and 143 assists. Pair that solid offensive front with a strong trap defense and a veteran netminder in Dwayne Roloson, and you have a solid playoff contender.

Ultimately, the Penguins' injuries are going to catch up to them. We know that Malkin has no chance of coming back this season and Crosby's prospects for return are only slightly better. The Penguins have had a good run, but they will make a first round exit this year.

Lightning in 6.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Playoffs 2011


It's time to renew your yearly membership of Canuck hatred. With Minnesota's win against Dallas, the Hawks have fallen ass-backwards into the playoffs and are set to face-off against the Vancouver Canucks. The two teams have faced each other in the Western Conference Semi-Final the previous two years. This year, the rivals will square off earlier than before. However, this is not the only difference in the latest chapter between these two teams.

One of the most significant differences is the players that the Blackhawks have lost since last season. Who can argue that the lack of Dustin Byfuglien will not be obvious in this series? Buff's greatest contribution in these series was his presence in front of the net. Byfuglien effectively blindfolded Luongo by constantly blocking his view of the puck and the play in front of him. No doubt, Big Buff was in Luongo's head and took him completely out of the game. Once the Hawks were in his head, Luongo stood no chance, giving up three playoff hat tricks to the Hawks (Kane, Byfuglien, and Toews). Without Byfuglien, how will the Hawks solve Luongo?

Tomas Kopecky is not normally a pivotal character for the Blackhawks. However, I expect to see the Blackhawks try to plug Kopecky in as the Byfuglien replacement in front of the net. Kopy has that tough grittiness that is needed to play that role. This isn't Kopy's first rodeo, either. The Hawks have stuck him in front of the net on several occasions this year. The question will be whether Kopecky can honestly fill Buff's shoes.

The Canucks also have differences in their roster. However, this is likely to be to their benefit. Vancouver made moves in the offseason to add much-needed help on the blueline. Dan Hamhuis and Keith Ballard replaced Willie Mitchell and Shane O'Brien. And rather than losing grit, Vancouver gained it by adding Raffi Torres (No, that's not the guy who makes the children's music) Jeff Tambellini, and Manny Malhotra. Unfortunately, the Canucks lost Malhotra to an eye injury that has the potential to end his career. Regardless, the Canucks should be tougher defensively this year than they have been the last two years.

The Canucks haven't lost their offense in the process, though. They managed to maintain the players that got them to the playoffs the previous two years (Ryan Kesler, the Sedin twins, Mikael Samuelsson, Mason Raymond). One would expect these Canucks to only be better as they have two years of playoff experience under their belt.

The Blackhawks have maintained their core (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook), however, the loss of strong role players with playoff experience may cost the Hawks as they head into the playoffs. Players such as Viktor Stalberg, Bryan Bickell, Nick Leddy, Jake Dowell, Michael Frolik, Marcus Kruger, Ben Smith, and most-importantly, Corey Crawford have little or no playoff experience.

With all of this in mind, I think it's important to note that the Hawks have done well in General Motors Place/Rogers Arena in the past. With the Canucks sitting in the #1 seed, there will be more games played there than at the United Center. Here's to hoping the Hawks can find a way to repeat history although the conditions are vastly different.