Thursday, December 29, 2011

Quick to Judge


Voting for the 2012 All Star game is on and--as always--the players from teams with the biggest fan bases get voted in while some of the league's ACTUAL all stars get snubbed. Looking over the current voting standings, I can't help but notice that one the league's best goalie has been snubbed by the hockey community once again.

Jonathan Quick is easily the most valuable player on the Kings' roster. Beyond that, his stats rival that of the best goalies in the league. Quick's prowess isn't new either. He's been dominant since 2009. However, Quick has yet to be invited to an All Star game, receive an award of any type, or even receive any sort of noticeable acknowledgement of his spectacular play. It's the most cruel sort of negligence.

Rewind back to 2009-10. At this point, the Kings had been pretty forgettable since the days of Wayne Gretzky. Enter Jonathan Quick. It's his first full season in the NHL. Interestingly enough, it's the first time the Kings would make the playoffs since the lockout. It would make sense that Quick had a lot to do with that since he started 72 games of the 82-game season, and unreal workload. And Quick's quantity of play was not substituted for quality, rather it was supplemented by it. In the 09-10 campaign, Quick posted a SV% of .907 and a 2.54 GAA. Beginner's luck? I doubt it. Sophomore slump? Not at all. In 10-11, Quick improved on his numbers. Playing 11 fewer games (there's no way he could have kept pace with 72/year), Quick posted a .918 SV% and a 2.24 GAA.

If you continue to track Quick's numbers into this season, they continue to get better. Through 31 starts this season, he has a ridiculous .930 SV% and 2.08 GAA. Oh, and he leads the league in shutouts with 5. You would think that numbers like this would garner a spot on the All Star roster. However, on the list of the top 15 vote-getters, Quick sits at 11.

Let's look at the goalies who sit above Quick:
1. James Reimer
2. Tim Thomas
3. Marc-Andre Fleury
4. Carey Price
5. Pekka Rinne
6. Henrik Lundqvist
7. Ilya Bryzgalov
8. Jimmy Howard
9. Nikolai Khabibulin
10. Roberto Luongo

Most of these guys are good goalies, but why doesn't Quick get higher consideration when he has better stats than most of them?

Even more pressing--why doesn't Quick get any love from his own team? No matter how well Quick plays, it seems that every year the Kings coach and management want to wedge more Jonathan Bernier into the net. ESPN (not that they're a reliable source of hockey opinion) predicts Bernier to somehow take the job away from Quick. So far, Benier's "competition this season has been a 3.10 GAA and .883 SV%. The Kings don't seem to realize that Quick is the one piece that is keeping them in contention.

Don't tell me about Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards, or Dustin Brown. The Kings offense has been miserably weak. They rank dead last in the league in goals per game with 2.1. Richards may be the top goal-scorer for the team, but even then he only has 13 this season and Kopitar is the only other player in the double digits in goals (10). Kopitar is also the top point producer on the team with 34, but there are only two other Kings with 20 points or more. Don't kid yourself and say that Quick's getting any help at the other end of the ice.

While his team wallows in futility, Quick is a rock on the other end of the ice. I told you that the Kings are scoring 2.1 goals per game. Well, the Kings are allowing 2.3 goals per game, which is the 6th best GAA in the league as a team. Granted, Bernier is probably responsible for the negative ratio, but the Kings offense isn't really giving Quick much room for error. Yet, the Kings sit one point out of the top spot in the Pacific Division.

All of this and Quick is still only considered a "dark horse" for Vezina consideration and sits behind 10 other goalies for All Star consideration, likely because of players like James Reimer who haven't really played that much or that exceptionally well this year, but are likely to get in because he plays in Canada or because he plays for a team with a large fan base.

Look at the stats. Look at reality. Quick is a real contender and the lynchpin of his team. Be a real hockey fan and call a spade a spade. Give credit to the real stars of the NHL. You could start by voting for Jonathan Quick.

Friday, December 16, 2011

What Controversy?



3.00 GAA and a .896 SV% sounds like Roberto Luongo's playoff stats...if he were having a good year. I certainly wouldn't have predicted they'd be the Blackhawks' young upstart goalie, Corey Crawford, midway through December. So technical and calm, Crawford maintained a 2.30 GAA and a .917 SV% in his rookie season with a markedly weaker squad in front of him. He played well enough to convince Stan Bowman to give him $8M over the next 3 years. What do we say of the start to the season? Shocking? Disappointing? Sophomore slump? I'd agree with that. One thing I won't say and I don't think you'll hear a lot of other people say is 'bust'.

Crawford has definitely had his struggles this year. Crawford is known as a goalie who is very technical, almost robotic at times. If you were going to beat Corey Crawford, you weren't going to wait until he was out of position or took a bad angle, because you would never score. Corey wasn't born a fundamentally-sound goalie. He earned his talent by working his ass off in Norfolk and Rockford for 5 years, while watching his big league team sign a veteran bust and call up an undrafted teammate after only spending one year in the AHL. Then he had to watch as that former teammate backstopped his big league club to a Stanley Cup Championship. Could you imagine Crawford's inner anguish? However, instead of demanding a trade or complaining that he should have been called up before Antti Niemi, he just worked harder. He worked harder so that one day when Antti Niemi's agent got greedy (whether or not he was worth the money is another discussion), the Blackhawks would be more inclined to try the 2nd-round prospect who had been groomed in the AHL for 5 years.

Crawford would meet yet another challenge, though. The Blackhawks, wary to hand the reigns over to a rookie had signed Marty Turco to be their starter. Again, Crawford didn't complain, but worked harder and made the most of his opportunities. Not surprisingly, Crawford earned the starting job by December.

Crawford's 2011-12 campaign didn't start where he left off last year. His first few games were pretty typical of Corey, but by the end of October, you could already tell that he wasn't himself. Allowing 4, 5, 6 goals was NOT something Crawford did regularly. One could blame the poor defensive play we've seen this year. Nik Hjalmarsson, Steve Montador, Sami Lepisto have put forth some poor efforts this year. Even Duncan Keith and Nick Leddy have had some doozies. Unfortunately, these weren't Corey's only problems. He seemed to have lost some of that technical play we had seen before. On more than one occasion, Crow seemed to lose his crease. He would be down too early, only to watch a puck hit the net above his shoulder. He needed to go back to the basics.

Thankfully, the Blackhawks started a new veteran reclamation project in Ray Emery. Emery's story is different, although it still includes trials and challenges. Formerly a stalwart tender in Ottawa, Emery found himself out of favor with the Ottawa brass and since then has spent his days bouncing around the league. His stay in Philly ended with Emery finding that he had avascular necrosis, a rare disease in which the cells of femur in the hip joint begin to die due to a lack of blood flow. Emery had surgery and declared his intention to rehab and play again one day, but most fans had written him off. True to his word, Emery returned to the NHL in the last month of the 10-11 regular season and the first round of the playoffs with the Anaheim Ducks. Emery was a new man, posting 7 wins, 2 losses, a 2.28 GAA, and a .926 SV%.

Emery's performance made the league take notice, but the Ducks' regular starting goalie returned this year after a bout of vertigo and no longer needed Ray's services. The rest of the league was either set at goalie or were unwilling to take a chance on Emery's new hip. The Hawks didn't really need a starting goalie and they had their reservations about Emery as well. Chicago brought Emery into camp on a tryout basis before signing him. The Hawks haven't regretted it, either. Unlike Crawford, Emery DID pick up where he left off last year. So far, Emery's posted a 7-1-2 record with a 2.70 GAA and a .904 SV%. He's been a rock when the Hawks D has looked like they were in the spin cycle. He looks like a guy who's somehow found a second "prime". Think that bird on the back of Ray's helmet is a hawk? I'd be more inclined to think it's a phoenix.

Emery has made it possible for the Hawks to let their young star sit back and work with goalie coach Stephane Waite, while the Blackhawks continue to win games. This has led the media to speculate that there is a goalie controversy in Chicago. I'm not convinced.

Remember how Corey Crawford got to where he was last year? Watching everyone else be where he wanted to be and working hard on his technique to get there. All of the sudden Corey's lost that drive? I doubt it.

The Blackhawks are lucky to have a guy like Emery to hold down the fort until Crawford gets his head right, but the truth is that Emery is a streaky goalie. I'm ecstatic that he's on the positive side of things while Crawford is working things out, but Hawks fans shouldn't expect Ray to keep up this pace the entire season. If Ray's honest with himself, he knows that he's streaky too. He also knows that his main objective this year is to prove to NHL clubs that he still has gas left in the tank. He doesn't want to hit the downslope of his streakiness as badly as Blackhawks fans want to avoid it. As soon as the good times end, he'll be glad to let Corey take over for a while.

In the meantime, Corey Crawford will work to earn his starting role back. And when he does we'll all be saying, "What controversy?"

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Losing Credibility

It's not an easy job to have. Colin Campbell called it a thankless job. No matter what you do, you won't please everyone. As the head of the NHL's Department of Player Safety, one must watch all serious hits or penalties and decide whether supplementary discipline is necessary. If you give a player a suspension, half the fans will say that you're turning the NHL into a Pansy League. If you decline to suspend a player, the rest of the fans will say that you don't care about player safety or that you favor big market teams, etc. And forget about giving someone a fine, because no one will be happy with that. It really is a lose/lose situation.

I was psyched when Colin Campbell was replaced by Brendan Shanahan this summer. I had grown tired of Campbell's terrible inconsistencies. It seemed the times that most required a suspension, none would be given. Other times, when he did give a suspension, you couldn't tell when or why he'd throw the book at someone. One of the dirtiest, most dangerous hits we've seen in recent memory was dismissed by Campbell as he labeled Marc Savard "a little fake artist" and allowed Matt Cooke to skate on, delivering more dangerous head shots. Other famous inconsistencies include the lack of a suspension on either hit that put Sidney Crosby on the shelf for nearly a year, the lack of suspension to Zdeno Chara after nearly decapitating Max Pacioretty, and the lack of suspension to Raffi Torres after he shouldered Brent Seabrook in the head during the 2010-11 Playoffs.

I was looking forward to a change from the supposed "Wheel of Justice" approach by Campbell. And I wasn't disappointed as the new suspension liaison, Brendan Shanahan, began a new tradition of issuing a video breakdown of each suspended play. The videos brought a level of transparency to the suspension process that NHL fans had never experienced before. The videos had their critics, but I felt that Shanahan's videos gave the league more credibility. However, Shanahan's most recent decisions might be the beginning of his loss of credibility.

About a month ago, Milan Lucic plowed into Ryan Miller as Miller came out of his crease to play the puck. One might argue that if Lucic had his head down, he wouldn't have seen Miller come out to play the puck or that Lucic only brought his arms up to protect himself in the collision. Lucic's explanation wasn't as bad as Ndamukong Suh's delusional tale of losing his balance as he stood up, but I'm still not buying it. The play resulted in a concussion to the Sabres franchise goalie (although Buffalo might have been happy to have an excuse to play Jhonas Enroth more), but apparently that didn't factor into Shanny's decision. Shanahan withheld the hammer and decided that Lucic's hit wasn't suspendable. If he knew what was coming next, he might have changed his mind.

On Miller's first game back, he was drilled with yet another hit. This time, Jordin Tootoo was driving hard to the net, when he was stripped of the puck and was cut off by Christian Ehrhoff, leaving him nowhere to go but the crease. To his credit, Tootoo jumped in an attempt to avoid collision with Miller, but that didn't matter to the Sabres, who after being roasted for merely giving Lucic a stern talking-to after he hit Miller, jumped Tootoo (how brave...).

Shanahan put himself in a bad situation. He had to either stay the course, recognizing that Tootoo's hit was significantly less violent than Lucic's (I should also mention that this hit didn't result in concussion), but also send the message that plowing over the goalie is acceptable. Or he could suspend Tootoo, trying to fix the precedent he had already set, but effectively contradicting himself. A lose/lose situation, in which he chose the latter option. No matter what he chose, his credibility would be damaged. And Shanahan probably found out why everyone hated Campbell, and if he hasn't found out by now, he will in the next few days.

Monday, November 28, 2011

And It Starts Again...

So, my writing on this blog has been spotty at best. I'll get on a real kick where I want to write about everything and then I'll hit a point where I'm like, "Man, coming up with stuff to write about is hard." So I stop for a while until I feel compelled to write again. Well, today, I found that I'm about to have a lot more time to write and one of my dreams is to become a sports writer someday. So.....here we go.

I want to start off by sharing a few things I've learned from the beginning of this season.

Steve Mason is not that good.

Seems like an obvious one, but I guess we'll just start with the easy one's first.

I used to be hopeful about Steve Mason. When Mason hit the scene in 2008-09, he was incredible. As a rookie, (in Columbus, of all places) he put up 33 wins, a .916 SV%, and a 2.29 GAA in 61 starts. Mase's stats weren't enough to win a Vezina, but they were definitely a promising sign that the NHL had a new up-and-coming goalie in Columbus. Mason won the Calder Trophy in 08-09 as the league's Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately--for Mase and the Columbus faithful--these seem to be Mason's "Glory Years"; or should I say "Glory Year"?

Since that rookie season, Mason hasn't even started as many games as he did then, much less won that many games. He lost more games than he won in the 09-10 campaign and only posted 3 more wins than losses last season. Mason was also unable to keep his GAA below 3 the past two seasons.

I never wrote off Mason until this year, though. In Mason's second season, I was satisfied to blame Mason's struggles on a sophomore slump. The league had simply figured him out, and he needed to step up his game, work on his technique and come back with another strong season in 2010-11.

When Mason struggled again in 2010-11, I shrugged my shoulders and wondered, "Who could thrive in Columbus?" For a while, I thought that Mason's performance so far in 2011-12 strengthened my argument. However, I've changed my mind.

In 16 games, Mase has posted a disgraceful record of 3-12-1, a horrendous GAA of 3.63, and a shameful .875 SV%. Again, when I look at the underwhelming roster in Columbus, I'm very tempted to blame the defense. However, the Jackets have addressed this issue. Fedor Tyutin is decent and they signed Nikita Nikitin, who is decent now and has lots of promise for the future. And although I think he's a colossal douchebag, their offseason acquisition of James Wisniewski also strengthened their blue line significantly. I feel a lot of teams have a defense just as good/bad (however you want to phrase it) as Columbus, yet aren't being gashed by every single team they play.

Enter Curtis Sanford. "Who," you say? "Exactly," I say. Curtis Sanford, the journeyman goaltender who's played for a list of teams as long as my arm, but has never really been on anyone's All-Star Team. After playing in only 7 games this year, Sanford has already piled up as many wins as Mason. And though he has played less than half the amount of games Mase has played this year, Sanford's numbers are staggering, considering that he's playing with the same team in front of him that Mason has all season. Sanford is sporting a 1.39 GAA and a .947 SV%.

So, what's my point? Sanford is the next big thing? No. My point is that if a no-namer can outplay Steve Mason in such a significant way (with the same team in front of him, no less), then Mason is just not good enough to compete in the NHL. There are no longer any more reasons for Mason to be as BAD as he has been this year, when a call-up scrub can post these numbers.

I used to be hopeful about Steve Mason, but not anymore.

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Round 2 Picks

Okay, so I didn't post these in time, because I didn't realize the Preds/Canucks series would start so soon, but I did actually write this before the Lightning stole one from the Caps on Friday.
I don't think it was terribly difficult, but all of my first round picks were correct (only the amount of games might have been different for a couple series). The second round will be a little bit tougher to call as the matchups become more even.
Since the series has already begun, I'll start with the Canucks/Preds. After the Canucks finally overcame their perennial foe--the Blackhawks--the Canucks' postseason is starting to look like a good story if they are able to take it all the way. As far as I can tell, Nashville will just be another stop along the way.

The Canucks showed themselves to be an all-around dominant team at times. They proved they can be an offensive threat, as well as a shutdown defense. Luongo also posted a shutout and might be the sole reason the Canucks won games 1 and 7. However, all facets of their game showed significant breakdowns in the series.

Games 4 and 5 were showcases of mental weakness as the Blackhawks had Lu listening to "So You Had a Bad Day" on repeat as he cried himself to sleep. The Sedins also showed that they could be entirely shut down by the addition of one defensive forward to the roster. If I were a Canucks fan, I would be worried that the Predators defensive style might also render the Sedins impotent.

The Predators showed heart and grit in their series with the Ducks, finally advancing to the the second round of the playoffs for the first time in team history. Sadly, I think the road ends here for them. The Ducks are a good team, no doubt, but they are nothing compared to the Canucks when they're at their best. When the Canucks are on top of their game, the only team I could see stopping them is the Red Wings. Now that the Canucks have exorcised their demons against the Blackhawks, I don't think we'll see any significant collapses by the Canucks. Keep in mind, all of the Canucks' postseason collapses were against the Hawks; every other playoff series they've had in the past three years, they've looked excellent. This series, we'll see more of the Canucks team that we saw during the regular season.

Canucks in 6.

Sharks/Red Wings

Once again, the Sharks are in the postseason after a great regular season, but once again, they will fall short of the ultimate prize. Unfortunately for the Sharks, they are already facing the seed directly below them. Even more unfortunate? They're facing a team that probably has more playoff experience in the last ten years than any other team in the league. Need we also mention that they might be a tad upset that the Sharks eliminated them last year?

The Sharks showed heart in Game 3 in Round 1 against the Kings by coming back from what I was sure was another San Jose postseason collapse. However, the series was not all positive. Former Blackhawks playoff goalie hero, Antti Niemi, looked like he'd been studying goaltending in Philadelphia, posting an embarrassing 3.99 GAA and a pathetic .863 save percentage. Things won't get any easier versus the red-hot Pavel Datsyuk and company.

The Red Wings took the Coyotes to Pound Town and they will now lay hands on the Sharks. The Wings are a playoff-tested bunch of savvy players who are simply programmed to dominate. The Sharks are no more than a brief stopover in the Red Wings' path to another Conference Finals.

Wings in 5.

Capitals/Lightning

Washington handled the Rangers as most would expect they should, which is a major improvement since their first round loss to the 8th seed Canadiens last year. The deadly offense combined with the new-found stingy defense means that Michal Neuvirth has the potential to become the next Antti Niemi (of last year, not this year). He posted an impressive 1.36 GAA against the Rangers in Round 1. If he can keep that up, the Capitals shouldn't have too much trouble scoring two goals in a game.

Hands down, the best acquisition the Lightning made this season was the addition of veteran goalie Dwayne Roloson. This was well-illustrated in their first round series against the Penguins. Posting a .949 save percentage and a 1.77 GAA, Rollie gave the Lightning a chance to win, most importantly in Game 7. The Lightning combine solid backstopping with Hart finalist Martin St. Louis and captain Vincent Lecavalier. However, I don't think there is enough star-power on this team to elevate the Lightning past the Caps.

Capitals in 6.

Bruins/Flyers

This might be the most interesting matchup of the second round. These two teams met last season at the semifinals; a series which the Bruins took a 3-0 series lead before dropping four straight, including a Game 7 which they led 3-0 at one point. It easily qualifies as the most colossal collapse in recent memory.

This time, the Flyers come in as the higher seed and the Bruins' Tim Thomas is in the midst of a Vezina-nominated season. By far, this is the toughest series to predict. The Flyers boast an exvellent offense which they showcased against one of the NHL's top netminders, Ryan Miller. However, the roulette-style goalie selection process that was happening in Peter Laviolette's head every night gives Flyers fans something to worry about. No goalie could build any consistency, nor seemingly stop a puck. Luckily, the Flyers offense bailed them out in a seven-game series that would have been monumentally embarrassing for the Flyers to lose.

The Bruins survived a goalie duel with a gritty Canadiens team and a formiddable goalie in Price. One has to respect the Bruins' rebound after losing the first two games of the series, but do they have the fortitude to do to the Flyers what the Flyers did to them last year?

This series is going to boil down to two things. Can the Flyers find an answer in net? Can the Bruins' offense match the Flyers'? My guess is that Laviolette goes with Boucher for the rest of the playoffs and he will get into a rhythym. There are very few teams who can match the Flyers' offense and the Bruins are not one of them. The Flyers' offense was great against the Sabres, and if they get Jeff Carter back, it will only get better. Thomas will steal at least two games and Boucher is due for at least one terrible game. However, the Flyers will take this series, and it will take them 7 games to do it.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Spencer's Playoff Predictions--Western Conference



(1) Canucks/(8) Blackhawks
The Vancouver Canucks are an easy favorite to win it all. They led the league from wire-to-wire this season with few--if any--slumps. After making two consecutive second-round exits (at the hands of the Blackhawks, no less), the Canucks added much-needed strength to their blueline (Dan Hamhuis, Keith Ballard). Adding gritty veterans Manny Malhotra, Jeff Tambellini, and Raffi Torres were also to their benefit. These players are all surrounding the talent that got them to the playoffs the last two years (the Sedins, Ryan Kesler, Mikael Samuelsson, Kevin Bieksa, Roberto Luongo). It's not surprising that the Nucks finished the season as Presidents Trophy-winners and had the greatest goal differential in the league (+77). The only areas of concern for Vancouver are the loss of Malhotra, the anchor to the Canucks' third line. Additionally, the Canucks have had trouble keeping their defense healthy. Lastly, Roberto Luongo has appeared to suffer collapses in the mental part of his game the last two years against the Hawks. However, this seemed to likely be because of Dustin Byfuglien's presence in front of the net. Without Big Buff in the way, will this be the year that the Canucks are able to move past the Blackhawks?

The defending Stanley Cup Champs have had a maddeningly inconsistent year capped-off by barely clinching a playoff spot, relying on the Wild to beat the Stars in the last game of the season. After parting with so many "role players" in the offseason, the Hawks had a difficult time getting their new faces to fill these roles. Thankfully, the Blackhawks were able to retain their core (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp). However, the Hawks were unable to avoid the "injury bug" as they had last season. All of the above-mentioned players missed at least a few games this year due to injury. This lack of consistency may end up costing the Hawks who are facing an opponent who clearly has their act together. The only real hope for this Chicago team is if they wer able to get in Vancouver's head--especially Luongo's--and remind them of their failures.

Canucks in 7.

(2) Sharks/(7) Kings
This has the potential to be the most lop-sided series in the first round. The Kings made the playoffs on the backs of Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams, and Jonathan Quick. Unfortunately for the Kings, Kopitar and Williams are done for the season. And if Jonathan Quick's performance in the final week of the season is any indication of what he'll do in the playoffs, the Kings are in bad shape.

The Sharks have been a sexy pick the last several years. With plenty of big names and the scoring to back it up, the Sharks were a difficult team to ignore. After making yet another early exit from last year's playoffs ( a 4-0 series sweep by the Blackhawks in the Western Conference Finals), the Sharks parted ways with netminder Evgeni Nabakov, who had always been a solid option in the regular season, but fell apart in the playoffs. Interestingly, the Sharks signed Antti Niemi, the goalie who thwarted their Cup hopes last season and ended up hoisting the Cup himself. Pair this playoff-tested goalie with an offense who has learned to be better two-way players and you have a playoff contender.

Sharks in 5.

(3) Red Wings/(6) Coyotes
The Coyotes are an interesting team. Shane Doan's 20 goals leads the team. Most people would take this as a sign of an anemic offense. However, ten other players on the roster have at least ten goals. this sort of player parity makes for a team who can score with any line. However, Phoenix's +5 goal differential this season may not be good enough to take down the perennial playoff contenders.

The history of the Red Wings is well-documented. One would need to go back two decades to find a season that the Wings didn't make the playoffs. The team is only one year separated from its last Stanley Cup Finals appearance and only two years removed from their last Stanley Cup Championship. The familiar cast is back (Zetterberg, Franzen, Holmstrom, Datsyuk, Lidstrom) and there is no reason to doubt them this year.

Red Wings in 6.

(4) Ducks/(5) Predators
The Ducks looked doomed when Jonas Hiller went out with a case of vertigo and Curtis McElhinney took over the starting role. However, the subsequent dumping of McElhinney and additions of Dan Ellis and Ray Emeryseem to give Ducks fans a reason to believe. The Ducks' offense should be a source of hope as well. Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan, and Teemu Selanne lead the team in goals with 50, 34, and 31 respectively. I also can't question their meddle as the Ducks came from behind to win several important games down the stretch. Additionally, the Ducks have won 10 of their last 13 games. The last thing a team wants to face in the playoffs is a hot team, which is exactly what the Ducks have become.

The Predators might have been the last team in the West that anyone wanted to face in the first round of last year's playoffs. Although the Predators were only a 7th seed last year, their trap defense wasn't something any fast-paced team looked forward to. The Predators return to the playoffs this year two seeds higher and with a similar lineup. One significant departure to note is the loss of Dan Hamhuis to Vancouver. This may hurt the Preds chances agaisntthe goal-happy Ducks. However, the Ducks +4 goal differential might signify that the Ducks don't have a "stud" defense. Another point to consider is that the Ducks' goaltenders haven't seen playoff action for a few years. Ellis was a back-up last year and Emery spent a considerable amount of time on the DL. Even if Hiller comes back, I have doubts about his ability to snap into playoff form.

Predators in 7.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Spencer's First Round Playoff Picks--Eastern Conference


Now that the playoff pairings are set, and before the actual games begin, there's only one thing to do. Predict. Here are my best guesses at who will move on to the second round.
(1) Capitals/(8)Rangers
The Capitals have found fairly early exits in their last few playoff experiences. The Penguins pushed past the Caps in 08-09 in route to a Stanley Cup Championship. Last year, the Caps were upset as the #1 seed in the East in the first round by the #8 seed Canadiens. With all their scoring, the Caps had little to speak of in the defense and goaltending departments. However, the Caps learned their lesson and traded for Jason Arnott and Dennis Wideman. Their focus on improving their defense has not gone unnoticed as they've been able to shut down more teams rather than simply out-score them this year. In my opinion, this puts the Capitals past the Rangers in the first round.

The Rangers will not be a total pushover. A team so full of grit is hard to ignore come playoff time. However, the loss of Ryan Callahan will be about as devastating a loss to the Rangers as a guard dog losing its teeth. Callahan is the heart and energy of this team and let's not kid ourselves and pretend that Marian Gaborik is a player with any real heart.

Capitals in 6.

(2) Flyers/(7) Sabres
What can I say? The Flyers made the Finals last year as a #7 seed. Grit? Check. Talent? Check. Experience? Check. The Flyers have all the pieces to be taking home some hardware this season. The only area that some people might possibly be worried is in the goaltending. However, Antti Niemi proved last year that goalies need not have NHL playoff experience to win it all and Sergei Bobrovsky has shown himself to be as good a rookie talent as Niemi. What's stopping the Flyers?

The Sabres are possibly the least impressive team in the playoffs, in my opinion. Although Drew Stafford had 4 hat tricks this season, their top scorers are rather forgettable players. The most impressive player on the team is last year's Vezina Trophy-winner, Ryan Miller. However, Miller is not nearly as impressive as he was last year, sporting only a 2. 59 GAA. The Sabres shouldn't be too tough a task for the Flyers.

Flyers in 5.

(3) Bruins/(6) Canadiens
If the two teams are able to make it through the series without the Montreal Police somehow getting involved, I'll be impressed. As anyone who watches hockey knows, the regular season meetings between these two teams were less than sportsmanlike. However, this series will be a TV goldmine. Two teams who don't like each other with a lot of tools to do something about it.

The Bruins are a sexy pick this year as Tim Thomas has revived his Vezina-caliber play (he credits it to his new mask pattern) and the rest of the team has certainly played well enough to earn their #3 seed in the East, despite the lack of Marc Savard. The Bruins have also posted the East's best goal differential. The Bruins are a true contender this year and are likely to want to avenge their 2nd round collapse last season (In case you missed it, the Bruins were up on the Flyers 3-0 in the series before losing 3 consecutive games, then lost Game 7 after going up 3-0 in that game).

The Habs are as gritty a team as any in the playoffs. Their solid defensive play is backed by an equally stingy goaltender. Carey Price has had a nearly as impressive comeback as Thomas. After a great rookie season, Price lost the starting job to playoff hero Jaroslav Halak. With two starting goalies on their hands, the Canadiens decided to part with Halak and give Price another shot. It proved to be a good decision. However, I don't think Price will be able to do much about the Canadiens scoring. As good as the defense is for Montreal, I think they give up too much in the offensive department.

Boston in 7.

(4)Penguins/(5) Lightning
Since the loss of the loss of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins seemed a long-shot to make the playoffs. However, the Pens tied their division leader in points, and only missed the division lead themselves by a tiebreaker. Players like Chris Kunitz and Tyler Kennedy have stepped up to attempt to fill some of the void. No doubt, the Penguins would not be anywhere near this mark had they lacked Crosby and Malkin all season long, but you have to admire the fact that they only dropped 3 standings spots since losing them.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are making their first playoff appearance since 2006-07. After a few years old slumber, the Lightning have finally put together a team to watch. Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Steven Stamkos are a good place to start. The trio have combined for 101 goals and 143 assists. Pair that solid offensive front with a strong trap defense and a veteran netminder in Dwayne Roloson, and you have a solid playoff contender.

Ultimately, the Penguins' injuries are going to catch up to them. We know that Malkin has no chance of coming back this season and Crosby's prospects for return are only slightly better. The Penguins have had a good run, but they will make a first round exit this year.

Lightning in 6.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Playoffs 2011


It's time to renew your yearly membership of Canuck hatred. With Minnesota's win against Dallas, the Hawks have fallen ass-backwards into the playoffs and are set to face-off against the Vancouver Canucks. The two teams have faced each other in the Western Conference Semi-Final the previous two years. This year, the rivals will square off earlier than before. However, this is not the only difference in the latest chapter between these two teams.

One of the most significant differences is the players that the Blackhawks have lost since last season. Who can argue that the lack of Dustin Byfuglien will not be obvious in this series? Buff's greatest contribution in these series was his presence in front of the net. Byfuglien effectively blindfolded Luongo by constantly blocking his view of the puck and the play in front of him. No doubt, Big Buff was in Luongo's head and took him completely out of the game. Once the Hawks were in his head, Luongo stood no chance, giving up three playoff hat tricks to the Hawks (Kane, Byfuglien, and Toews). Without Byfuglien, how will the Hawks solve Luongo?

Tomas Kopecky is not normally a pivotal character for the Blackhawks. However, I expect to see the Blackhawks try to plug Kopecky in as the Byfuglien replacement in front of the net. Kopy has that tough grittiness that is needed to play that role. This isn't Kopy's first rodeo, either. The Hawks have stuck him in front of the net on several occasions this year. The question will be whether Kopecky can honestly fill Buff's shoes.

The Canucks also have differences in their roster. However, this is likely to be to their benefit. Vancouver made moves in the offseason to add much-needed help on the blueline. Dan Hamhuis and Keith Ballard replaced Willie Mitchell and Shane O'Brien. And rather than losing grit, Vancouver gained it by adding Raffi Torres (No, that's not the guy who makes the children's music) Jeff Tambellini, and Manny Malhotra. Unfortunately, the Canucks lost Malhotra to an eye injury that has the potential to end his career. Regardless, the Canucks should be tougher defensively this year than they have been the last two years.

The Canucks haven't lost their offense in the process, though. They managed to maintain the players that got them to the playoffs the previous two years (Ryan Kesler, the Sedin twins, Mikael Samuelsson, Mason Raymond). One would expect these Canucks to only be better as they have two years of playoff experience under their belt.

The Blackhawks have maintained their core (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook), however, the loss of strong role players with playoff experience may cost the Hawks as they head into the playoffs. Players such as Viktor Stalberg, Bryan Bickell, Nick Leddy, Jake Dowell, Michael Frolik, Marcus Kruger, Ben Smith, and most-importantly, Corey Crawford have little or no playoff experience.

With all of this in mind, I think it's important to note that the Hawks have done well in General Motors Place/Rogers Arena in the past. With the Canucks sitting in the #1 seed, there will be more games played there than at the United Center. Here's to hoping the Hawks can find a way to repeat history although the conditions are vastly different.