Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Chickens Come Home to Roost

Before the playoffs even began, I tried to stay positive because many of my friends see me as an eternal pessimist.  I tried to keep my negative comments stifled, for the most part, but I HAD to tell someone all the reasons why I thought the Hawks wouldn't make it far in the playoffs this year.  Sometimes I hate when I'm right.

From the outset of the year, many voices around the league identified the Hawks' lack of a second-line center.  In previous years, Patrick Sharp was a decent center, but after having great success at wing last season, it was hard to justify moving him from that position.  With little cap space to make any improvements, the Hawks had to look internally for a second-line centerman and found Patrick Kane.  Much to the surprise of many (including myself), Kane was very productive at the beginning of the year, with the Kane/Hossa pairing making many forget the traditional Kane/Toews pairing.  However, as time wore on, Kane's success wore out and the Hawks only answer to replace him was the questionable signing of Brendan Morrison.  As a result, the Hawks suffered from a lack of puck possession, with Jonathan Toews being the only true, elite faceoff-winner on the team.  Fast forward to the playoffs and you see Patrick Kane back at center, losing 3/4 of his faceoffs, giving the puck to the Coyotes.

Defense was another weakness for the Hawks coming into the season.  The Blackhawks had to part ways with Dale Tallon's brilliant $7M/year through 2016 contract for Brian Campbell in order to fill a roster.  (By the way, they got Rostislav Olesz, who spent nearly the entire season in the AHL.)  The Hawks might have replaced Campbell's speed and puck-moving ability with Chris Campoli if he had a reasonable idea of his value.  Instead, Campoli chose to start the year as a free agent, get signed by the lowly Canadiens, and spend much of the year injured, but I digress.  With Campoli out of the picture, the Hawks decided to sign a senior citizen, a pedestrian defenseman, and a veteran whose only real contributions came at the beginning of the season.  The defense was a point of weakness all year, until they signed Johnny Oduya at the deadline.  Even then, the Hawks' D could not be described as a strength.

Goaltending was not something many Hawks fan saw as an issue.  After having a great year and a fantastic playoffs last year, Corey Crawford had earned himself a new contract.  Beyond that, the Hawks signed a veteran backup who was making an NHL comeback in Ray Emery.  Unfortunately, the sophomore slump I feared showed it's head in November and didn't go away until the end of March, when Crawford reassembled his game.  Crawford developed a penchant for letting in weak goals and getting his team behind.  I'll give Crawford credit for dueling to 5 straight OTs against the Mike Smith, but take away the two very weak OT goals Crawford gave up to Mikkel Boedker, and the Hawks might have been the team advancing.

Special teams.  Simply put:  they didn't score on the power play and they allowed too many goals on the penalty kill.  Championship teams use the man-advantage and don't allow other teams to use their advantage.  Part of this could be due to the loss of Campbell, who was able to move the puck well and enter the zone quickly.  However, part of it could be due to my next point.

Big players didn't show up in big games.  Early in the season, Kane, Toews, Hossa, and Sharp were all lighting the lamp enough to burn your retinas.  However, as the season moved into late winter/early spring, the goals dried up and games that used to be wins started turning into losses.  Imagine if the Hawks scored a few more goals.  The Hawks come away with multiple wins.

Alas, the Hawks face another long summer, trying to figure out how to remedy their most recent shortcomings...

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Round 1: Eastern Conference

This preview will be considerably shorter than my Western Conference predictions, mostly because I don't know quite as much about Eastern Conference teams.

NYR vs. Ottawa

This is going to be one of the most one-sided series' in the entire playoffs. The Rangers showed the entire season that they are an elite team this year. The addition of Brad Richards was actually as important as the offseason hype about him made us believe. Also, it seems that Marian Gaborik might actually be made of something slightly stronger than glass, as he did not suffer a major injury this year. Beyond that, Henrik Lundqvist might as well add "Vezina Trophy winner" to his list of accomplishments. And defense won't be an issue, as everyone on the team is taught to block shots.

Ottawa had a good year. Jason Spezza is having his best season in years and Erik Karlsson will win the Norris Trophy. However, the Senators' strength as a team cannot match that of the Rangers. This will just be the first step for the Rangers' inevitable march to the Conference Finals.

Rangers in 5.

Boston vs. Washington

Boston is the reigning champ, Washington hasn't won anything of note lately. Alex Ovechkin might already be past his prime and it seems that he can no longer carry his team. The Capitals attempt to focus on defense and build for the playoffs seems to have stifled the Capitals scoring with only a small improvement to the defense. Beyond that, the Capitals have to use an inexperienced goalie yet again in Braden Holtby, as Michal Neuvirth and Tomas Vokoun are both injured.

Boston Tim Thomas, a true playoff warrior last year in addition to an electric offense and a strong defense. There's a reason they won the Cup last year. Even without Horton and with Nicklas Backstrom returning for the Caps, look for the Bruins to take care of business early in this series.

Boston in 5.

Florida vs. NJ

Florida started the season strong, making Dale Tallon look like a genius yet again. However, over the course of the season, things predictably cooled for Florida. Now the Panthers sit in a similar position as the Coyotes. They're in a high seed because the NHL puts the winner of each division in the top 3 spots, but they really don't have the edge in this series. Their offense is below average, their goaltending is nothing to write home about, and their Jason Garrison is the only person I can talk about positively on the defense.

New Jersey isn't the most exciting team in the playoffs either, but at least they have Zach Parise, Ilya Kovalchuk, Adam Henrique, and Martin Brodeur to talk about. And at least the Devils have been to the playoffs in the past decade.

Congrats on ending your playoff drought, but this isn't your year. Maybe you can build off this experience for next year.

NJ in 6.

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia

This is the series that everyone will be watching. How could it get any better? Two great teams that hate each other, have an in-state rivalry, and have seen each other many times before (including in the playoffs). Stars on either side will make these games incredible to watch. The two best players in the league, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, line up next to another star in the making, James Neal for Pittsburgh. Jaromir Jagr, a former Pens superstar has rejoined the NHL on their rival team, the Flyers. He stands next to Claude Giroux and playoff warriors Scott Hartnell and Max Talbot.

The difference between these teams will be goalies. This will be upsetting to Flyers fans, as Philly threw piles of cash at Ilya Bryzgalov to try to feel safe in their goalie position. However, Bryz has proven ESPN right, as they argued that he barely outplayed his backups in the past and that his success was mainly due to the shots he was facing behind a solid defense.

Blowing up the team last summer has not made the Flyers any more playoff-ready and the return of Crosby has made a great team the "team to beat" in the Eastern Conference. I'm looking forward to an entertaining series and I'm looking forward to watching the team I predict to win the Stanley Cup this year make their first step in doing so.

Penguins in 6.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Round 1: Western Conference

LA vs. Vancouver
Once again, Vancouver sits atop the Western Conference. This year, though, the Canucks are faced with fewer expectations. Even though the Canucks earned the Presidents Trophy for a second year in a row, the team seems to be under the radar. Maybe Vancouver was shoved in hockey fans' faces so much last year that normal coverage seems "under the radar" now, but I digress.

Being the top seed means that Vancouver gets to face another hungry 8 seed. Last year, the Canucks were forced to face their nemesis, the Blackhawks in the first round. When Vancouver seemingly had the series wrapped up with a start of 3-0 in the series, the Hawks forced a 7-game series and only then did the Canucks finally close the door.

The Canucks are not ready to make the same mistake. After coming within one win from the Stanley Cup before choking in back-to-back games (including a home Game 7), it would be fair to guess that the Canucks are playing with a drive to make good on some unfinished business.

The Canucks seem to be a reverse of the Kings. Scoring is their forte and they've shown it as 5th place in goals per game at 2.9. However, when it comes to the playoffs, Luongo is a well-documented headcase. If the Kings crack Lou early, the Canucks are fortunate enough to have Schneider to fall back on.

However, the Canucks have not drawn a doormat opponent. The Kings have made early exits the past two postseasons and like the Canucks, probably feel they have something to prove. They stand a better chance this year than they have in the past. The Kings have finally found a way to score. As I wrote in my last post, Jeff Carter seems to be the answer for the Kings' previous scoring woes. With Carter likely returning from injury for the series, look to see if Carter can continue to be a presence on the score sheet. Defense and goaltending won't be an issue for LA with Doughty and Quick leading the way. The Kings might have a chance if the scoring continues. If not, the team will have to rely, yet again, on Jonathan Quick to be the team. And if trends me anything, then he won't be able to carry a team that cannot score.


If it weren't for Schneider, this series would be more of a toss-up. But even without Daniel Sedin (which it sounds like he'll be back for the series), the Canucks are a better team. The push to make the playoffs has likely sapped the Kings' strength and Kings fans will be disappointed once again.

Canucks in 5.

St. Louis vs. San Jose

In their previous four meetings, it was pretty clear who was the better team. St Louis swept the season series. No doubt, this was only one of the many amazing things the Blues did this regular season. For instance, the dominant goaltending duo in StL not only posted the league's best GAA at 1.9, they also posted the league's most shutouts with 15 (Elliott 9, Halak 6). However, this poses an interesting problem for St. Louis. Who should start? Elliott has the more impressive numbers, but Halak has the experience of leading the Habs to the Eastern Conference Finals.

More problems exist for the Blues, as well. For one, the Blues are entering the playoffs on the wrong trajectory. For as strong as they played in the regular season, the Blues limped through the final weeks of the season, winning only 4 of their final 12 games. As many of you know, one of the most important things that can decide a playoff winner is being hot at the right time. If this is true, the Blues should be concerned. Also, in hockey more than any other sport, experience is vitally important. It is nearly impossible for a green team to bear the grind of 4 consecutive 7-game series'. The Blues lack mightily in playoff experience. Sure, they have Jamie Langenbrunner and Jason Arnott, who have playoff experience, but the team as a whole does not have much experience.

Conversely, the Sharks have plenty of playoff experience as a team. Unfortunately, their experience only includes one Conference Finals and a series of early exits. In an effort to build for the playoffs, the Sharks have added Stanley-Cup-winning goalie Antti Niemi as well as a solid defenseman in Brent Burns. Normally a high-scoring offense, the Sharks have traded some offense for defense in order to better fit the playoff-winning prototype. The Sharks HAVE improved their defense, but is the offense good enough now to beat the REAL "Best Goalie Tandem in the NHL"? I say, "No."

The Sharks, much like the Kings, will likely be exhausted from scrapping for a place in the postseason. This matchup against a relentless St. Louis club will do them no favors. Beyond that, it's pretty obvious to see that the Blues just have this team's number. And no team can win with a a weak captain like Joe Thornton.

Blues in 4.


Phoenix vs. Chicago

Another contestant in the Pacific Division race, the Coyotes actually came out on top, saving them from almost certain death. However, the Yotes must now recover quickly and get prepared for a playoff-tested Blackhawks club. Unlike the Coyotes, the Blackhawks have been pretty confident in their playoff spot for a few weeks and have been getting in a rhythm for the playoffs. Even without captain Toews and defensive leader, Keith, the Hawks put together a nice stretch toward the end of the season. Corey Crawford seems to have found his game again. And Patrick Kane is scoring points again. All things to be feared by the Coyotes.

However, the Blackhawks have plenty to be afraid of, too. Mike Smith is not the Mike Smith of old. The desert has been good to him. A .930 SV% doesn't happen by accident. And Smith is still rolling, adding 3 shutouts to his stats in the last weeks of the season. The Hawks also need to beware of the Coyotes spread attack. Only one player outshines the rest and that's Ray Whitney. The rest put up decent numbers, making it hard to key in on a particular player or line.

The Hawks also need to look at their shortcomings this season. Goaltending, defense, and power play have all been issues this season. These problems have ebbed of late, but hardly demonstrate a full turnaround. As I said earlier, Crawford seems to have found his game, at the moment. Defense has gotten better with the addition of Johnny Oduya. And the power play was okay the last few games. However, the Hawks have also developed a bad habit of backing down, giving up leads, and allowing games to go beyond the 3rd period. The Blackhawks need to find a way to lock down and not give the Coyotes anything easily, because a gritty team like Phoenix will be sure to take it.

Look for a tough series out of these two teams. The Blackhawks have more experience and a history of making it past the first round (unlike the Coyotes). The Coyotes play a playoff-style game year-round. However, the Coyotes "score by committee" approach to the game hasn't done them any favors in the playoffs the last two years. And if we're honest with ourselves, we know they don't deserve to be a 3 seed. I'm giving the Blackhawks the edge in this series, but it won't be by much.

Blackhawks in 7.

Nashville vs. Detroit

This series is sure to be a classic. Two teams from the best division in hockey face off. The Red Wings boast a wealth of playoff experience and star players that can carry them deep into the playoffs once again. The Predators are becoming perennial contenders and have gone deeper into the playoffs with each postseason. Can the Predators continue this trend?

The Predators' problem in the playoffs before was that they did not have enough of what I call "star power". Similar to the Coyotes, the Predators scored "by committee". This year, the Predators have "gone for broke" to make a deep playoff push. They re-acquired Alexander Radulov after he decided to come back at the conclusion of his KHL club's season. They also made moves to acquire Paul Gaustad, Hal Gill, and Andrei Kostitsyn. Radulov was a top scorer in the KHL and brings a decent amount of "star power" to Nashville. Hal Gill will strengthen what is already a strong defense in Nashville. Gaustad and Kostitsyn won't hurt the team either. The Predators clearly have their best shot to do something in the playoffs in the team's history. Their home ice advantage, held onto by the Blackhawks who defeated the Wings in their final game of the season, will be an extra bonus, as the Red Wings have not been a good visiting team this season.

However, the Wings have so much history of success in the playoffs that I'm not even going to begin to explain it. If you watch hockey, you know what I'm talking about. The Wings also have not changed much since their success. Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Tomas Holmstrom, Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk all remain on the team. Jimmy Howard is having a season to remember. This team can definitely match and overcome the Predators with "star power".

This series should be a dog fight. The season series was split, so that gives no edge to either team. As I said before, the Wings were not good as a road team this year, but they were by far the best home team in the NHL. The Predators have done a lot to improve their team, but if the Wings can steal one of the first two games, look for them to take the series. Unfortunately for the Predators, even though they have their best team yet, they still drew a tough opponent. Look for the Wings experience to dash the hopes of the Predators yet again.

Wings in 7.